Science Is not About ‘the Reality’—It is About Constructing Fashions

You may assume you’ll be able to simply depart the science stuff to scientists—however you’ll be able to’t. We reside in a world that’s surrounded by science and we use toys that depend upon science (like that fancy smartphone in your hand). Different points, like local weather change and vaccinations, can have a big impression on any certainly one of us. You do not have to be science nerd, however it’s a must to no less than know the essential components of science.

Listed below are the important thing features of science that everybody must know. Sure, that is for you. You recognize who you might be.

It is Not About What You Consider

Here’s a widespread sentiment:

I simply do not imagine in international warming. It does not really feel hotter to me. It does not look like it is actual.

Science is just not about believing. Too many issues are recognized to be true which might be past what we might think about—and subsequently imagine. Who might have guessed that there are objects so huge that they bend gentle like a black gap? Who would have thought that an odd object is manufactured from different objects just like the electron and the proton? Even essentially the most artistic individual could not dream up a world as loopy and superior because the one we reside in.

If we won’t depend on our beliefs or instincts in science, what can we do? The secret’s experimental proof. As an alternative of utilizing our intestine instincts, we construct concepts primarily based on information from experiments. That is the premise of science.

Science Is Not Concerning the Reality; It is About Constructing Fashions

If you consider the phrase “mannequin,” do you consider a small plastic factor that appears like a automotive or a airplane? These are certainly fashions—they’re bodily fashions. The aim of science is to construct fashions like these besides higher. Take into account a globe of the Earth. It is a mannequin in that it reveals some essential issues (like the placement of the continents) nevertheless it is not really the Earth. We will additionally make mathematical fashions, computational fashions, and even simply conceptual fashions. Science is the method of constructing and testing these fashions primarily based on experimental proof.

However on the finish of the day, these are nonetheless simply fashions. They don’t seem to be The Reality. In actual fact, the one technique to know if a mannequin is totally true could be to check each potential case that applies to the mannequin. This implies testing each state of affairs IN THE WHOLE UNIVERSE—oh, and all the time starting with the Massive Bang till the top. You possibly can’t try this.

Don’t be concerned. All is just not unknown. Though we do not know the reality, we nonetheless have nice fashions. As an example, we nonetheless do not utterly perceive the gravitational interplay, however our fashions are adequate to design that airplane that will get you throughout the nation safely. Oh, and we nonetheless have fashions which might be adequate to know that there’s certainly local weather change and it’s attributable to people.

You Cannot Be an Skilled in All the things

OK, what about local weather change? Let’s discuss that. Here’s a widespread response with regard to local weather change:

I am not an professional on the local weather, however how am I supposed to only belief these scientists? Possibly they’ve an agenda. Heck, we won’t even predict the climate so how are we alleged to know the temperature will rise by 1.5 levels Celsius.

Sure, it is true. I am probably not an professional on the science of local weather change. However then once more, there are lots of issues that I do not actually perceive—like Fortnite. That is why we rely on others for assist. How about an instance.

For example you go to the physician (a medical physician) for a examine up. The physician says “oh, unhealthy information—you may have a mind cloud.” What the heck is a mind cloud? Effectively, it is unhealthy. Possibly you want surgical procedure. What do you do subsequent? Possibly you must get a second opinion, proper? So one other physician says “yup, mind cloud for positive.” That is nonetheless not adequate. You go and see 100 medical doctors. Of all of those medical doctors, you get 97 who say it is a mind cloud. However you’re feeling fantastic, proper? Your head does not even harm. Possibly you must take heed to these three medical doctors who mentioned you might be fantastic.

That’s the state of affairs we’re in with local weather change. Even when solely 97 p.c of local weather scientists say that local weather change is an actual factor, we must always in all probability take it significantly. What is the worse that might occur? We make the world a greater place and the entire thing was a hoax. Oh darn.

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House Midterm Outlook: Steady as She Goes

ANALYSIS — Are we still headed for a Democratic wave in the House next month? That all depends on how you define a wave. But one thing is clear: Democrats are still likely to flip the chamber even after all the buzz about a post-Kavanaugh Republican bounce.

A wave occurs when a large number of one party’s seats flip to the other party, invariably because of a national political figure (the president, usually) or a national issue. Many competitive seats change hands, and at least a few entrenched incumbents suddenly find themselves in trouble.

How many seats need to flip to constitute a wave? 20 seats? 30? 50?

The best way to answer that unanswerable question is to look at history.

During the 17 midterm elections that have occurred since 1950, five have produced single-digit changes, while another four have been in the teens and low double digits. Three elections have produced net changes from 26 to 30 seats, while five more have produced gains of 48 to 63 seats.

The single-digit changes — in 1962, 1986, 1990, 1998 and 2002 — clearly were not waves. One party cherry-picked enough seats to make a net gain, but there was no sign of national political momentum.

The teens/low double-digit change elections — in 1954, 1970, 1978 and 2014 — may have reflected one party’s advantage, but for me, the net changes don’t constitute a substantial enough surge for one side to be defined as a wave election.

Watch: 12 Ratings Changes for House, Senate and Gubernatorial Races: 4 Toward GOP, 8 Toward Democrats

Not a science

I’ve always used 20 seats or even 25 seats as the minimum number of seats that a party needs to gain before calling an election a wave, though I don’t think there is a magic number.

In part, the number of seats that need to switch depends on where the two parties start.

Moreover, not all waves are alike. There are smaller waves (20-30 seats) and larger ones (48 seats each in 1958, 1966 and 1974) — and there are tsunamis, including 1994, when Republicans gained 54 seats, and 2010, when they gained 63 seats.

This cycle, a modest wave has been developing for months. President Donald Trump’s job approval has been low, and voters have told pollsters they want a Democratic Congress as a check on him.

Trump’s job approval climbed in the Oct. 14-17 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, but that survey also gave Democrats a 9-point advantage (50 percent to 41 percent) in the generic ballot among likely midterm voters. And while Republican enthusiasm has grown over the last month, it fails to match Democratic enthusiasm.

Women and college-educated whites have moved strongly toward the Democrats, and younger and minority voters appear unusually energized.

More important at this point of the election cycle, surveys in individual congressional districts show GOP-held suburban districts like Virginia’s 10th District (Barbara Comstock), Colorado’s 6th (Mike Coffman), New Jersey’s 11th (retiring Rodney Frelinghuysen’s open seat) and Kansas’ 3rd (Kevin Yoder) poised to flip.

Incumbents in these and similar districts have proved that they can win even in difficult political environments, but a wave is an entirely different matter since it makes the election about someone else (in this case, Trump and Republican control of the House), not the individual Republican nominee or member of Congress.

Of course, not all seats behave the same way even during a political wave. Not even all suburban seats behave the same way.

Candidates and their campaigns matter. Strategists from both parties have very different views of the current House playing field and how it has changed.

GOP strategists generally express confidence that the party’s “worst case” scenario has been avoided, thanks to the confirmation fight surrounding Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh.

They once feared losses of 40 to 50 seats, but now generally expect somewhat fewer losses, probably in the 30-40 seat range.

A veteran Democrat I spoke with laughed at the prospect that Democrats were ever going to win 50 seats, insisting that 30 or 35 seats was always a more reasonable number.

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales has projected Democratic gains of 25-35 seats, a “Category 1” hurricane that would produce a wave that would cost Republicans the House but wouldn’t produce anything close to a 1994 or 2010 tsunami.

Holding steady

In an early September column, I found Democrats heading for a gain of about 30 seats, with larger gains very possible, though I have generally been saying that I expect Democratic gains in the 30-40 seat range. I see no reason to alter that expectation. 

Others, of course, have suggested that Democratic prospects in the House were much greater a month ago and have dimmed of late.

Some districts do look worse for Democrats, while others suddenly look intriguing, but that is the nature of campaigns — and of political handicapping.

Moreover, it is quite possible that some of those who once expected greater Republican losses were overly optimistic about Democratic prospects.

Pennsylvania, California and New Jersey continue to be prime Democratic targets, but there are many races that are still competitive, including Kansas’ 2nd District, Maine’s 2nd, Kentucky’s 6th, Florida’s 15th and 26th, New Mexico’s 2nd, Virginia’s 2nd and Iowa’s 3rd.

Republicans, on the other hand, will win a Pennsylvania open seat and are likely to swipe one or two pro-Trump districts in Minnesota.

Although I have watched House campaigns and elections closely for almost four decades, I’m less confident I know how this cycle will end.

Trump, after all, is an untraditional figure, and that makes his impact uncertain. But for now, just two weeks before Election Day, the contours of the 2018 midterm elections haven’t changed dramatically in the House.

The focus remains primarily on suburban districts, college-educated whites, younger voters and minorities, not on rural and evangelical voters or whites without a college education. The House is still poised to flip party control.

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FOX NEWS FIRST: Trump to use as many troops ‘as necessary’ to stop caravan; Missing Wis. girl search expanding

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Developing now, Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018

  • President Trump has vowed to send as many troops ‘as necessary’ to prevent a growing Central American migrant caravan from entering the United States
  • Trump backed former rival Sen. Ted Cruz, called his midterm opponent Beto O’Rourke a phony and accused Democrats of ‘assaulting’ U.S. sovereignty at a campaign rally in Houston, Texas Monday night
  • An explosive device was found at the Westchester, N.Y. home of billionaire George Soros Monday night, according to reports
  • Democrats are expected to reopen an investigation on alleged Russian collusion if they retake the House in the midterm elections, observers say
  • Investigators announced they are looking for two ‘vehicles of interest’ in the search for a Wisconsin girl who went missing after her parents were found slain in their home. Authorities are expected to expand the ground search for Jayme Closs on Tuesday

THE LEAD STORY – TRUMP PROMISES TO STOP CARAVAN AT THE BORDER – In an interview aboard Air Force One on Monday, President Trump made clear there was no limit to the number of troops he’s willing to send to the border to address the growing migrant caravan quickly making its way through hot and humid temperatures in Mexico to the U.S. border … The president previously vowed to send the U.S. military, as opposed to the National Guard, to confront the group, which the United Nations now estimates is over 7,200 members strong. Trump told USA Today in an interview that “people from the Middle East” are among the thousands of migrants in the caravan, echoing remarks he made on Twitter Monday morning, when he complained there were MS-13 gang “criminals and unknown Middle Easterners mixed in.” The president did not elaborate. Asked how many troops he was willing to send, Trump told the paper simply, “as many as necessary.” Speaking to reporters outside the White House earlier Monday, Trump slammed several Central American countries that he charged were “doing nothing” about the caravan and threatened to cut U.S. aid to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

FROM ‘LYIN’ TED’ TO ‘TEXAS TED’: President Trump on Monday night voiced his support for one-time rival Sen. Ted Cruz in his re-election, calling the Texas Republican “a really good friend of mine” … Speaking at a “Make America Great Again” rally at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, the president said while the pair’s relationship has previously been rocky, he encouraged rallygoers to vote for the senator. “Nobody has helped me more with your tax cuts, with your regulation, with all of the things that we’re doing … than Senator Ted Cruz,” Trump said. Trump, meanwhile, called Cruz’s opponent, Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke a “stone cold phony” who “pretends to be a moderate, but he’s actually a radical open-borders left-winger.” “The Democrats,” Trump said, “have launched an assault on the sovereignty of our country.”

SOROS TARGETED? – An explosive device was found on Monday at the Westchester, N.Y., home of billionaire George Soros … The Wall Street Journal, citing local law enforcement, reported that police received a phone call from the residence about a suspicious package. An employee that works at the home found the package in a mailbox and opened it, revealing what appeared to be an explosive device, according to the Bedford Police Department. The employee then placed the package in a wooded area until authorities arrived. Soros was not home at the time of the incident, according to the New York Times. The bomb squad deactivated the device, and the investigation has been turned over to the Joint Terrorism Task Force Division of the FBI.

Soros, 88, has donated at least $18 million to his charity, the Open Society Foundations, which works to promote democracies in countries around the world, according to the organization’s website. Known for his philanthropy and political influence, has focused his efforts as of late on the midterm elections in the U.S., and has funneled upwards of $15 million to Democrats as they push to regain control of Congress.

FOR DEMS, MIDTERMS ARE A WAY TO REVIVE RUSSIA PROBE: Democrats are expected to re-open the investigation into alleged collusion between Russian officials and Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign if they regain the House of Representatives majority in next month’s midterm elections … The Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence was the only House panel to investigate Russian meddling. This past April, the committee’s Republicans said they found “no evidence” of collusion between the Russian government and Trump campaign. Democrats said Republicans ignored key facts and important witnesses. However, while some on the left wing have said they wanted to restart parts of the investigation if they win the House, others said there could be a political cost if they overreach.

Intelligence Committee Ranking Member Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and other lawmakers have said they’re closely watching special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation and the Senate’s Russia probe to look for gaps that they could fill.

WHERE IS JAYME CLOSS? – Two “vehicles of interest” were announced on Monday in the search for Jayme Closs, the Wisconsin teenager who went missing Oct. 15, the day her parents were found shot to death in their home ...  Surveillance footage helped the Barron County Sheriff’s Office and the FBI determine the makes and models of two cars “seen in the area” of the Closs home at the time of the fatal shootings. Investigators believe a red or orange Dodge Challenger made between the years 2008 and 2014 might be linked to the incident. Another vehicle — either a Black Ford Edge, made between 2006 and 2010, or a Black Acura MDX made between 2004 to 2010 — is also of interest. Investigators believe 13-year-old Closs is still in danger. The search for Closs was to expand Tuesday with as many as 2,000 volunteers expected to comb the Barron, Wis. area.


VENEZUELA CURRICULUM –  “A new study found that, among campus administrators, liberals outnumber conservatives by 12 to one. To put that in perspective, North Korea has more diversity. The result: a student body going deeper into debt and only exposed to one kind of thinking–the kind that makes kids dumber, so they won’t notice it’s also making them broke.”  – Greg Gutfeld, in his monologue on a special edition of “The Five” in Texas, arguing that today’s colleges and universities are “basically our own Venezuela” within the United States. WATCH

‘Body double’ seen wearing slain Saudi writer’s clothes, fake beard after killing: report.
Turkey, where Saudi writer died, has culture of surveillance.

Lottery jackpot winners face big IRS tab.
WWE star Roman Reigns stuns fans by revealing his leukemia battle.
North Carolina restaurant server given $10,000 cash tip by patron who ordered water.

Michael Avenatti ordered by judge to hand over $4.85 million in back pay to attorney at his former law firm.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross can’t be questioned in census suits, Supreme Court rules.
Former House Speaker John Boehner to host marijuana investing seminar.

Virginia man killed trying to protect woman from sexual assault, cops say.
Chelsea Manning posts photo from hospital after gender reassignment surgery.
Michigan brothers face $450,000 in fines for tree removal on their property.

Stock futures point to more losses amid flood of earnings.
Judge affirms Monsanto weed-killer verdict, slashes damages.
How Trump tariffs affect Ford, GE, Harley Davidson earnings.
Midterms: How will they affect stocks?
Oil dips as Saudi Arabia pledges to play ‘responsible role’ in market.
Trump says ‘major tax cut’ on the way for middle class.
Barcade: A business model that offers something old, something new and something boozy.
Uber to deliver ‘flying burgers’ via drone as soon as 2021.

Jason Chaffetz: Let’s stop electing the speaker of the House in secret.
Steve Hilton: Mr. Trump, you’ve promised ‘severe punishment’ over Jamal Khashoggi’s death. How about this?
Nancy Brinker: All women need access to the best breast cancer technology, now.

‘Price is Right’ icon Bob Barker rushed to hospital: report. 
Amy Schumer takes aim at NFL advertisers, won’t appear in Super Bowl ads.
‘Wonder Woman’ sequel shelved until summer 2020.

Rare ‘Go Mango’ 1970 Dodge Charger 440 six-pack found in barn after owner passed away.
Dead Sea Scroll fragments discovered to be ‘fakes’ at the Museum of the Bible.
Bizarre, 185 million-year-old Jurassic-era mammal found with 38 babies.


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FOX & Friends, 6 a.m. ET: Special guests will include: “Angel Mom” Agnes Gibboney, whose son was killed by an illegal immigrant, has a message for the thousands of caravan migrants marching to the U.S. border. U.S. Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, defends herself against a campaign contribution complaint. Does former President Obama deserve credit for today’s booming economy? Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, sounds off.

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Varney & Co., 9 a.m. ET: Mike Huckabee; Thomas Homan, former acting ICE director; Nigel Farage, former leader of the UK Independence Party; Art Laffer, former economist under President Reagan.

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The FOX News Rundown podcast: With the midterm elections a little over two weeks away, the Democratic and Republican parties are pushing hard to get their messages out to voters. Donna Brazile, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee and co-author of “For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Politics,” weighs in on Democrats’ midterm chances. Typically someone’s credit score is based mostly on payment history. But now the creator of the FICO credit score is rolling out a new system that factors in how we manage our money in the hopes of boosting the number of approvals for credit cards and personal loans. FOX Business Network’s Gerri Willis and Ted Rossman with, weigh in. Plus, commentary by “Media Buzz” host Howard Kurtz.

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The Brian Kilmeade Show, 9 a.m. ET: Saudi Arabia and the killing of activist Jamal Khashoggi, the midterms and the looming showdown over the caravan of Central American migrants will be among the topics of debate with the following guests: Anthony Scaramucci; Allen West; Eric Dezenhall; Morgan Ortagus; Sara Carter; and Chris Stirewalt.

2008: Badgered by lawmakers on the House Oversight Committee, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan denies the nation’s economic crisis was his fault but concedes the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a “state of shocked disbelief.”

2006: Former Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling is sentenced by a federal judge in Houston to 24 years, four months for his role in the company’s collapse. Eventually 10 years was cut off Skilling’s prison sentence, and he was released to a halfway house in Aug. 2018.

1987:  The U.S. Senate rejects, 58-42, the Supreme Court nomination of Robert H. Bork.

FOX News First is compiled by FOX News’ Bryan Robinson. Thank you for joining us! Enjoy your day! We’ll see you in your inbox first thing Wednesday morning.